AP-NORC poll finds Democrats and Republicans split on Israel's responsibility for war's escalation

WASHINGTON — (AP) — Many American voters are concerned that the ongoing Middle East conflict will escalate into an all-out regional war, a new poll finds. About half of voters are “extremely” or “very” worried about the possibility of a broader war in the region.

Though there is concern about the conflict growing, according to the survey from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, fewer voters — around 4 in 10 — are concerned that the United States will be drawn into a war in the Middle East. This poll was conducted prior to Israel's strike on military bases in Iran on Friday.

The conflict in the Middle East has become a major campaign issue as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris attempt to win over Muslim and Jewish voters in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. And although Democrats and Republicans are similarly worried about the potential for the war to expand, they disagree about who is to blame for its recent escalation and how the U.S. should be involved going forward.

About 6 in 10 voters say the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the Iranian government and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have “a lot” of responsibility for the escalation of the war in the Middle East. Roughly 4 in 10 voters think the Israeli government has “a lot” of responsibility, and only about 2 in 10 say the U.S. government has “a lot” of responsibility.

But there's a big partisan split on whether the Israeli government bears “a lot” of responsibility for the war's escalation. About 6 in 10 Democrats say they do — similar to the share of Democrats who say Hamas bears “a lot” of responsibility — while only about one-quarter of Republicans say the Israeli government bears “a lot” of responsibility.

Voters broadly support economic sanctions on Iran, which could hinder support to its proxy groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. A majority, 55%, are in favor of imposing sanctions. They are about evenly divided on whether the U.S. should be providing weapons to Israel’s military, and voters are more likely to oppose sending government funds to aid Israel’s military than to support it.

Deploying U.S. troops to aid Israel’s military garners little support among voters, regardless of their partisan affiliation. About half of voters oppose deploying U.S. troops to aid Israel’s military. Only about 2 in 10 voters favor deploying U.S. troops to assist Israel, and a similar share have a neutral view.

The U.S. is still pressing for any movement on short-term cease-fire proposals, despite letdowns in the past and little expectation of immediate breakthroughs ahead of the election.

About half of voters think the U.S. is doing “about as much as it can” to push for a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, while 3 in 10 say it could be doing more. Roughly 2 in 10 voters say the U.S. should be doing less.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to want less U.S. involvement in cease-fire efforts. About 3 in 10 Republicans say the U.S. should do less, compared to about 1 in 10 Democrats. About 6 in 10 Democrats say the U.S. is doing what it can, compared to about 4 in 10 Republicans.

Democrats, Republicans and independents are about equally likely to say the U.S. could be doing more.

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The poll of 1,072 adults was conducted Oct. 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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