Is the Miami Valley part of a new Tornado Alley?

DAYTON — The Miami Valley has been hit hard with severe weather this season. There have been seven confirmed tornadoes locally and 30 across the state. And we, here at Storm Center 7, have been here with you through it all.

So, the big question is “What in the world is going on?” says Storm Center 7 Chief Meteorologist Austin Chaney.

Upon further investigation of both February 28 and March 14, the meteorology says there wasn’t anything out of the ordinary to cause severe weather. We just had the right ingredients come together twice.

Storm Center 7 Meteorologist Britley Ritz, said, “We had the wind shear, instability, and the lifting mechanisms to support these storms. However, those storms did not reinvent the wheels in terms of what caused them.”

What was abnormal about our storms were the time of year and the frequency of occurrence. At this point in the year, the entire state of Ohio typically averages four tornadoes.

Since January, the state of Ohio has seen 35 tornadoes, which is more than we would normally expect in a calendar year.

So, the ingredients aren’t changing, but the numbers don’t lie. Tornadoes are striking with greater frequency.

According to our colleagues at Climate Central, the number of tornado-favorable days is increasing, meaning the number of days where we have sufficient wind shear and instability for tornadoes is going up.

Dating back to 2015, only one year featured below-average tornado counts, and only one year featured near-normal tornado counts. Every other year was above average. In the last five years, the normal is 22. We have had 24, 33, 33, 56 and we’re already at 35 in 2024, and it’s only April.

Storm Center 7 Weather Specialist Nick Dunn, said, “People will undoubtedly ask, is this a result of climate change? It is tough to say, and it is impossible to tie any one given event to climate change. However, tornadoes like warm, moist air, and Ohio has been seeing more warmth and greater moisture content in its atmosphere over the decades. Since 1950, the temperature during springtime months has increased at a rate of .4 degrees per decade. Similarly, the dew point has increased at a rate of .2 degrees per decade. Those are subtle increases, but small increases in dew point and temperature over time can have big implications in the amount of fuel available for storms.”

Chaney said with the numbers showcasing the increase in tornado activity, and the uncertainty of what climate change and increasing severe weather chances may bring you, you need a team you can trust. And, that is Storm Center 7 – Weather Coverage You Can Count On.

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