DAYTON — Winter is knocking on the door, and Storm Center 7 has completed its winter weather outlook.
We are forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall this winter season. La Niña, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and a general lack of frigid air in cold air source regions as reasons for our forecast.
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La Niña: This phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation means that we have cooler than average water in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. During La Niña, jet stream patterns over the US changed. On average, this pattern brings wetter than normal conditions to the Miami Valley, but also near normal to warmer than average temperatures. This La Niña is forecast to remain on the weaker side of the spectrum, and during weak La Niñas, the Miami Valley has typically seen near-average to below-average snowfall.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is another “big picture” weather pattern to look at, much like El Niño / La Niña. This teleconnection looks at the water temperatures in the North Pacific and off the U.S. west coast. When these waters are cooler than normal, the PDO is in the negative phase.
The negative PDO phase has been present for several years now and should continue this winter. Negative PDO winters have historically brought the Miami Valley above normal temperatures.
Cold Air Up North: When looking closer to the poles, the air is cold... Yes, but still warmer than average in many spots. To get very cold air in lower latitudes, you need snowpack and cold air up north. Right now both are lagging behind a bit.
This may make it more difficult to get true winter air into the Miami Valley early in this winter season.
Setups like these have delivered some decent snows in the past, and odds are we see a good snow or two this winter season, but overall we do expect the seasonal snowfall total to fall below the average of 25″ and temperatures to be warmer than normal.
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