DAYTON — In November 2023, the Storm Center 7 team released its winter weather outlook. We called for above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall. The reasoning behind this is not only El Niño but the strength of El Niño.
Using computer models, plus using what history told us about previous setups suggested warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall would be the case. To this point, we’ve been right.
In December and January, 41 of 62 days featured above-normal temperatures. Overall, temperatures are running about four degrees above normal. That may not sound like much, but for a seasonal average that is significant.
No surprise, with all of that extra warmth, snowfall is lacking. We are nearly six inches below where we should be at this point in the year.
Using a similar strategy to what we used in November, we are again forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall to continue through February. Four of the last five Februarys during winters with a strong El Niño have produced below-normal snowfall.
This doesn’t mean it won’t snow or get chilly at times (it has snowed some in all of those instances) it just means we should expect less than our monthly average of 6.6 inches.
As for severe weather, El Niño typically keeps the best chances for severe weather across the southeastern portion of the United States, and that is what we expect early in our severe weather season while El Niño is still a factor.
As El Niño weakens early this summer, our severe weather chances may ramp up then.
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