It's an exciting and admittedly tense time around the fantasy football world. The playoffs are almost here, and for some fantasy managers, Week 14 might be a play-in game. The NFL has given us a hellacious six-pack of bye teams (Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Commanders, Colts, and Patriots), so our rosters are not at full throttle. You'll probably need to start some uncomfortable options this week. Take heart, your opponents likely face the same reality.
The running back sleepers were a brick last week — that's been a common theme this year. But plenty of sleeper receivers came home — Adam Thielen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine all scored and beat their projections.
Let's see what we can do with Week 14.
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Jaguars (39%)
We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room; eight touchdowns on 20 catches is one of the all-time flukes. It defies explanation. But NWI has also seen his role grow in the Tennessee huddle since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. Westbrook-Ikhine collected a season-high eight targets last week and his snap shares the last six games are all robust: 92, 97, 100, 85, 90 and 100 percent. The fresh matchup is the Jaguars, who are the third-easiest draw for opposing wideouts. I'm not even sure NWI is a sleeper anymore — for my medium and deeper rosters, he's become a proactive pick.
QB Will Levis vs. Jaguars (17%)
As we mentioned in the Westbrook-Ikhine section, the Jacksonville secondary is a mess. It's getting torched weekly, yielding a QB rating of 110.2. And while Levis still makes too many weekly mistakes, he's also pushing the ball downfield — he's scored between 14 and 17 points in his last four fantasy starts, and he's thrown for 785 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games. There's a little bit of Jameis Winston in Levis' game, the YOLO life — you can decide if that's feature or bug. He's a playable QB2 in this truncated schedule.
WR Adam Thielen at Eagles (50%)
He's right at the roster tag where players graduate from this column, so hats off to the estimable veteran. He put on a clinic last week against Tampa Bay, winning on a variety of routes and also giving us the prettiest one-handed catch you'll see all season. Bryce Young has played better since his benching and that makes Carolina's offense more bankable.
The Philadelphia matchup is a problem — the Eagles have playmakers on all three levels and might be the NFC's most complete team — but if this game gets out of hand, the negative game script could help Thielen absorb targets. He's a playable WR3 for the balance of the month, health permitting.
TE Will Dissly at Chiefs (38%)
He did nothing at the Falcons, like every LAC player not named Ladd McConkey. Give them all a pass for that. The Chiefs seam coverage has been a mess all year and Dissly is probably the second read for Justin Herbert on most passing plays. If you lost Taysom Hill or Dallas Goedert this week, Dissly is a viable pivot at fantasy's most enigmatic position.
TE Noah Gray vs. Chargers (19%)
It feels strange to consider a fantasy start from a player who's ostensibly not a starter on his own offense. That said, the Chiefs have steered into a two-tight end offense as their base package, and Gray has posted a playable 12-147-4 line over the last three games. There's a sneaky floor here and reasonable goal-line equity, the foundation of most tight-end sleeper plays. And it's not like the Chiefs are getting reliable production from their wide receivers on a weekly basis. Gray is probably here to stay.
RB Sincere McCormick at Buccaneers (7%)
You're going to need to grind the news on this play — if the Raiders have a healthy running back room by the end of the week, McCormick can't be used. But he was the team's best runner in the near-upset of the Chiefs last week, and while the Buccaneers are easier to beat through the passing game, they're an average matchup for opposing running backs. It's not hard to imagine McCormick pushing into double-digit touches for the second consecutive week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell vs. Panthers (4%)
This is the Hail Mary play of the column, which is why it's listed last. There's an emergency, break the glass. The Eagles are 12.5-point favorites against Carolina, which means a blowout is likely. And Gainwell often collects 7-12 touches in games where the Eagles run away from the opponent. Maybe Gainwell can be a fourth-quarter and garbage-time hero as Philadelphia dominates the worst run defense in the league.
