Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here's a look at five players with bust potential in Week 6.
Something to keep in mind as you're reading: a "fade" or "bust" designation doesn't automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
I take no pleasure in reporting this, but 2024 Josh Allen is not the Josh Allen of the past. This is a new version of Josh Allen — one that we haven't seen in some time. Allen has finished as the overall QB1 twice in five weeks, which is good news. The bad news is that the three weeks where he didn't finish as the overall QB1, he finished as the QB19 or lower. That's a floor we haven't seen from Allen in some time, having had just one such finish all of last season.
In Week 6, the Bills will face the New York Jets, who just fired their defensive-minded head coach to the surprise of the roster, a unit that will likely be playing with a little fire under their belt this week. They've allowed just two total passing touchdowns all season, holding Brock Purdy, Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nix and Sam Darnold to a combined 38.7 fantasy points. For you math fans out there, that's only 3.3 fewer points than Kirk Cousins scored in Week 5 alone.
Allen has typically performed well against the Jets; over the past four seasons, he's averaged 268 passing yards, 2.2 pass TD and 0.9 INT per game with another 36.8 rushing yards and 0.5 rush TD per game against the divisional rival. However, given the current state of the offense and the fact that WR Khalil Shakir could miss a second straight game, another down week seems likely.
Heat check 🔥 Under no circumstance are you sitting Allen in most leagues, but if there's a time to expect a down week, it's this one. The only circumstance where you are benching Allen is if you happen to have paired him with a later-round value like Jayden Daniels who has equal upside at this point in the season. Also, if you're in that situation, try to make a trade!
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. had his official coming out party in Week 5, posting a 5-122-1 line that earned him 20.7 fantasy points on the day. It was good for a finish as the WR9 on the week, improving his overall standing on the year as the WR7 in half-PPR scoring leagues. Thomas leads all rookies in the league with 397 receiving yards as well. So ... why fade him now?
In Week 6, the Jaguars will travel to London to face the Chicago Bears, which means Thomas will likely see a frequent matchup against cornerback Jaylon Johnson and safety Kevin Byard — two of the top defensive backs in the league to start the season. Johnson is allowing a passer rating of 33.1 in coverage, with 2 pass breakups and 2 INTs this season.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Thomas more of a volatile, mid-range WR2/WR3 option in Week 6 rather than a locked-and-loaded starter.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Robinson has been a solid option for fantasy managers this season, ranking top 10 among running backs with 74 rush attempts while ranking top-four in the league with 5 rushing TDs and top-12 in first-down/touchdown rate (25.7%) and yards after contact per attempt (3.8) — so yeah, pretty good. It's good enough, in fact, for RB7 on the year.
It's difficult to imagine fading any fantasy asset on the red-hot Washington Commanders' offense right now. However, approaching their Week 6 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the prospects of efficiency in their run game. The Ravens have allowed a league-low 302 rushing yards through five games, including league-lows in yards per carry average (3.0), yards after contact per attempt (2.0) and explosive run rate (3.2%) per PFF.
Heat check 🔥 Robinson Jr. has been on a hot streak for touchdown production, but heading into this matchup coming off a Week 5 outing where the work was split fairly evenly between him, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols, I'll be sitting him in most leagues where I have other options. Consider him more of a fringe RB2/RB3 this week.
RB Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys finally got their run game going in Week 5 — a surprise, considering the Pittsburgh Steelers hadn't let up much of anything to opposing RBs prior. Dowdle saw a career-high 22 touches last week and has clearly carved out a role as the RB1 in the offense over Ezekiel Elliott, too — great news for his fantasy prospects down the line as a potential weekly flex play.
In Week 6, the Cowboys will face a well-rested Detroit Lions squad coming off of a bye, having looked like a shut-down rushing defense to start the year, outside of Kenneth Walker III's Week 4 showcase. This is a unit that is more susceptible through the air than it is on the ground. Expect Mike McCarthy & Co. to exploit that matchup through the air and put the ball back in the hands of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and maybe even Jalen Tolbert's hands — where it belongs.
Heat check 🔥 With the current matchup at hand, I'll be sitting Dowdle in most leagues barring a true fantasy football emergency.
TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Through five weeks, Eagles TE Dallas Goedert ranks top four at the position averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game. That's mostly due to his monster 17-point performance in Week 3, absent WRs DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, but still, in Week 6, the Eagles will face the Cleveland Browns, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (and holding the current overall TE1 Brock Bowers to a 2-19-0 line in Week 4).
In addition to Goedert's challenging matchup coming off the bye, he'll also resume a role as an ancillary piece of the offense with the return of Brown and Smith imminent. With increased competition for targets, Goedert should revert back to his typical usage.
Heat check 🔥 Given the volatility of the tight end position in general, Goedert can still be slotted into lineups. However, expect something closer to an average week for him (5-10 points) than a boom performance.
