The final stretch of the season is here. The AFC playoff race is just about set, the NFC is duking it out and there’s a host of teams just waiting to be officially eliminated from the playoffs.
This week’s Four Verts starts with a division that's the very definition of duking it out.
NFC North is living up to the hype
Coming into the season, all four teams in the NFC North had a reason for hope. Three of them still do with the Lions, Packers and Vikings each being among the elite in the NFL this season. All three of those teams are likely going to make the playoffs, barring catastrophe over the final few weeks. The Lions have the command of this division as one of the best teams in the NFL, but the Packers' chances as the division winner can increase with a huge game on Thursday night at Detroit. The Bears, well, are still having a Bears-like season, but the rest of the division is primed to make noise in the playoffs.
The Lions have been just an incredibly dominant team this season, especially on offense. According to TruMedia, the Lions’ offense ranks first in success rate (48.6%), points per drive (2.84), first downs and touchdowns per play (6.44), success rate on dropbacks (53.1%) and rushing attempts (46.9%). They also rank in the top five of most expected points stats and have converted 45.7% of their third downs. They’ve combined competent quarterback play, arguably the best running back duo in the league and a rock star offensive line to just mow down opposing defenses. Ben Johnson has a huge chest of talent to reach into, making his job as a play-caller much easier.
Their defense, which has been good this year, faces a tough test against the Packers, who boast an offense that's been among the league's best over the past month of the season. Since Week 9, the Packers rank first in yards per play (6.6), fourth in points per drive (2.76) and third in success rate on dropbacks (51.8%). This offense is playing like a machine and the defense, while inconsistent down-to-down, is getting enough turnovers to the point where they're consistently giving the ball back to an offense that's on fire. At 9-3, they're still very much alive for the division title and a high playoff seed if they can play their cards right and get a little lucky.
Minnesota is sandwiched in between them with a 10-2 record as one of the upstart teams in the league that might be outperforming their expectations. Their defense has been one of the best in the NFL this year and Sam Darnold has been steady enough to lead the offense to a potential playoff berth. They still have to play the Packers and Lions (and Bears) one more time before the close of the season, but Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores deserve a ton of credit for raising the expectations in Minnesota, even while their personnel might not be as well-known as what the Lions and Packers have. It’s tough to tell whether or not this is a real Super Bowl contender, but their defense will certainly give them a chance in January.
Then there’s the Bears. At this point, they’re just trying to get to 2025, which is a fair mindset to have following their masterclass on Thanksgiving.
Matt Eberflus might’ve just gone out in the worst possible for a coach to go out
Man. It's been about a week since the Bears' unprofessional blunder to lose to the Lions on Thanksgiving and it's still unbelievable. The Bears had no choice but to fire beleaguered third-year head coach Matt Eberflus after this loss, but it's still hard not to be in awe at how messy the end to his coaching tenure was — and it was partly the Bears' fault by the end of all of it.
The timeout blunder has been spoken about ad nauseam, but it really is just one of the craziest unforced errors seen at any level of football. The Bears, down 23-20, had a timeout on the edge of field goal range with roughly 30 seconds left on a running clock and a timeout in their back pocket. The optimal way to play it would have been to run another play, gain some yards, call a timeout and then try to kick the field goal. However, the Bears players really never got set in a timely fashion, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams was taking too long to move things along, and the Bears found themselves running out of time in a hurry. With just six seconds left, Williams snapped the ball, threw a prayer to Rome Odunze that landed incomplete and the game ended. Sloppy play by the players on the field, no doubt about it.
Still, the timeout should have been used. They could have kicked a difficult field goal, which is certainly better than what they did. Once Eberflus saw the original plan had just gone to complete crap, the timeout simply had to be burned. No discussion. Call the timeout. After a six-game slide from 4-2 to 4-8 with this latest failure being so pronounced, Eberflus had to go. That part makes sense.
What didn't make sense is how the Bears handled Eberflus' firing. For whatever reason, Eberflus was able to have a media conference with reporters the Friday after the game where he said he had turned his focus to preparing for the 49ers. Shortly thereafter, it was reported that Eberflus was fired, which seemed a bit in poor taste. Why make him speak on the mistake if he's not going to have a chance to rectify it? Just let him go after the game and move on. That part was a bit weird.
The Bears' season has turned into a shame festival, which is fair for how some of their games have ended. Their season is certainly over, but at least they have a strong base to develop for the new head coach. Could be worse, you could be the Raiders.
Brock Bowers should be the offensive rookie of the year
Reject the quarterback mind hive! Don't let the media make you think they're the only players on the field! There have been a few rookie quarterbacks playing well for their experience level, who deserve praise for their performances this year, but there is one rookie who is playing like one of the best players in the entire NFL — Raiders tight end Brock Bowers.
Bowers has been sensational and should be the hands-down favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year as one of the best tight ends in the league. According to data from TruMedia, Bowers has been arguably the most productive tight end in the league, especially when considering his volume of targets (and that he’s really the only scary offensive threat that the Raiders have). Among all tight ends with at least 40 targets this season, Bowers is first in receptions (84), yards (884), targets (113) and targets per route (0.28). He also ranks fourth in both yards per route run (2.18) and first downs and touchdowns per route (10.6%). That’s pretty great! Again, not just for a rookie, but that makes him one of the most productive tight ends in the league.
This isn’t a situation that’s exactly conducive for success for a rookie skill player. The Raiders have had a turnstile at quarterback with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. The Raiders have had one of the worst run games in the league this season. Davante Adams was traded early in the season, creating a huge target vacuum for the Raiders. Bowers had to be the man immediately for the Raiders' offense to be competitive this season and he has been.
On the whole, Bowers' 884 receiving yards rank fourth in the league and he leads the entire league in receptions. He’s having a historically great season as the focal point of the Raiders offense. Yes, the Raiders' offense is bad, but they would be completely untenable without his presence. At this pace, he’s on track to have 1,252 receiving yards as a rookie, which would shatter the rookie yards record for a tight end set by Mike Ditka in 1961 (1,076). He’s also on pace to join Ditka and Kyle Pitts as the only tight ends in NFL history to have 1,000 yards as a rookie.
If this isn’t worth rookie of the year, get rid of the award. Bowers being on a bad team shouldn’t be held against him here. Everyone knows the Raiders' problems run deep and tight ends ultimately have a limited impact on winning if they’re the only top players on the team. He should be the leader for this award and win it outright if he can keep this going.
The Raiders didn’t overthink their draft strategy and went straight “Best Player Available” and grabbed an absolute superstar in the making. At least they did one thing right!
What exactly are the Chiefs this year?
Let's keep this brief: Doubt the Chiefs at your own risk. They've been underwhelming given the absurd standard that they've set for themselves over the past few years, but this is still one of the best teams in the league. I care about every person who takes the time to read this column and I would hate for them to incur the wrath of Patrick Mahomes as the Chiefs fight and claw their way to homefield advantage for the playoffs.
Ignore scraping past mediocre-to-downright terrible teams. Ignore the Bills beating them earlier in the season. You know what the deal is with this team. The data doesn’t matter. Just wait until the playoffs before you even think about doubting what this team is capable of. Mahomes is reading everything. Make sure you keep your team safe and don’t add fire to the fuel.