I’ll say this for Chicago Bears team president Kevin Warren: He knows the talking points to accentuate when he’s promoting his franchise to prospective head coaching candidates.
In a Monday news conference where he announced the Bears opening as the "most coveted job in the National Football League this year," Warren learned on his years of considerable legal expertise and put together his best opening argument to the forthcoming market.
“We’re going to have plenty of salary cap space,” Warren said. “We have a young talented roster. We have strong draft capital in the upcoming draft. And we have a quarterback in Caleb Williams who has shown he’s very special — and in the right environment, he can become even more special than he has already shown.”
For head coaching candidates who often filter their opportunities through a series of box-checking exercises, Warren knows how to fill up the positive side of the ledger. Of course, he leaves out that you have a historically strong NFC North to contend with the next few seasons … family ownership that continually fails to find culture creators … an ambiguous power structure between the next coaching staff and current front office … a lot of rebuilding to do along the offensive and defensive lines, etc.
The point? There’s a lot of broad stroke issues that will ultimately define the ranking of the Bears job. But I guarantee the overriding value will most often be focused through the upside of a young quarterback — as head coaching vacancies often are — while Chicago reaches for the kind of coach/culture/quarterback trinity that can turn a franchise on a dime. It’s the primary difference between the 2024 resurgences of the Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders versus a lengthening list of other franchises sinking into a trench of failure. The New York Giants? The Las Vegas Raiders? The Cleveland Browns and several others…all have had their implosions focused through the prism of quarterback issues for years, if not decades.
With that in mind, I wanted to push aside all the factors that Warren was pitching in his press conference and just stick with the quarterback outlook. If we were ranking current and prospective head coaching openings heading into the offseason, where should they rank if they were solely focused through the quarterback situation?
Using a criteria of age, health, performance, contract and position depth, here’s how I’d stack the seven teams that either currently have head coach openings or that I believe could have them by the offseason. From worst to best …
7. New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers
Age: 41
Health: Declining with old age
Performance: Declining
Contract: He has a $23.5 million cap charge if he plays in 2025, including a $35 million option bonus due by the first game of the 2025 regular season. Conversely, releasing him incurs a $49 million dead cap hit.
Position depth: A suitable backup in Tyrod Taylor and a developmental rookie in Jordan Travis
Bottom line: The quarterback situation is a total mess with Rodgers. He's old, not playing at a high level, comes with the baggage of veteran entitlement, is expensive to keep and expensive to cut, and he's no longer surrounded by the Jets leadership that courted him. A head coach is either signing up to be criticized by Rodgers or signing up to ride out the cap pain of getting rid of him. The Jets also currently draft sixth overall — behind the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, who each need quarterbacks — which means that right now, they'd very likely have to expend more draft capital to land one of the draft's top two quarterbacks, or simply draft whoever is left in the pecking order. Terrible situation.
6. New Orleans Saints and Derek Carr
Age: 34 when 2025 season begins
Health: Moderate to slightly declining
Performance: Average to declining
Contract: He has a $50.1 million dead cap charge if released this coming offseason, versus only $28.6 million in dead cap if released following 2025. Otherwise, $90 million in total base salary and roster bonuses the next two seasons.
Position depth: Second-year backup Jake Haener and developmental rookie Spencer Rattler
Bottom line: Like Rodgers, Carr is an expensive player to keep, and an expensive player to release. Unlike Rodgers, he isn't burdened with baggage and rarely creates a fuss when he talks. He also still has a moderate amount of skill versus his age, at least making him an average-level starter when those around him are healthy. Not as good as a clean slate with no financial ties, and not as talented as some of the guys who also carry anchor contracts. Draft position right now is 10th, behind as many as five other teams that could feasibly select a quarterback inside the top 10. Big downgrade for that.
5. New York Giants and Daniel Jones’ dead cap hit
Age: N/A
Health: N/A
Performance: N/A
Contract: The release of Daniel Jones left a $22.1 million dead cap charge.
Position depth: None into the 2025 season
Bottom line: It's nearly a clean slate situation, apart from the dead money left on the books by the release of Daniel Jones. That downgrades it from other clean slates that owe less money, but it's still an upgrade over a total mess like the Jets and Rodgers. With that in mind, starting over fresh is better than dragging through another year of a situation that wasn't going to work. The Giants are also currently sitting at No. 3 in the draft order, which puts them in the predicament of either having to watch the Raiders draft QB1 with the No. 2 overall pick, or expend assets and trade up to No. 1 overall. Definite downgrade for that.
4. Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott
Age: 32 when 2025 season begins
Health: Declining
Performance: High but declining
Contract: Begins four-year, $240 million extension in 2025. Dead cap charge of $151.9 million after 2025, $62 million after 2026, and $34 million after 2027.
Position depth: None beyond Prescott signed for 2025
Bottom line: It's going to look controversial to have Prescott and Dallas below the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders. But there are reasons. First, Prescott has had a significant injury every other season since 2020. This year he sustained his second season-ending lower body surgery of the last five years. He also missed five games in 2022 with a broken thumb. His lower body mobility is unlikely to be what it was earlier in his career and he struggled significantly behind a Dallas offensive line that is bad. His contract is the largest in the NFL, yet his overall level of play has traditionally planted him in the bottom half of the league's top 10 QBs, rather than the top half. In short, he's a sub-elite quarterback on balance, getting paid like he's the most elite player at his position. Great leader. Good player. Concerning health. Terrible contract that will be inescapable and frustrating in comparison to how much work has to be done to make the conditions perfect for Prescott to play at his near-MVP 2023 level. Sometimes it's better to have a clean slate than this. Or a slate burdened by salary but still some youth to turn it around. That's why Dallas is a worse QB situation than all of the teams coming up next.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence
Age: 25
Health: Plays through in-season injuries that have impacted his performance
Performance: Inconsistent
Contract: Signed through 2030 after adding a five-year $275 million extension that technically begins in 2026. Dead cap charge of $133 million if cut next offseason, $88.5 million after 2025, and $44 million after 2026.
Position depth: None beyond Lawrence signed for 2025
Bottom line: His contract extension far outpaces his actual performance on the field and was awarded on the potential upside that the Jaguars have been seeking since Lawrence was draft No. 1 overall in the 2021 draft. His age, ability and unrealized ceiling make Lawrence attractive in spite of being overpaid at the moment. He also has never presented baggage. While not his fault (regardless of what critics of his slide-timing say), last week's concussion underscores an injury history that is at least mildly concerning. In four years, he's already dealt with ankle and shoulder sprains, two concussions, and some other little nagging things. There's a real argument to be made that some of those tough-it-out-and-play health issues have hindered his development. There's still a lot here to like, but 25 can turn into 30 fast, and at some point, it becomes clear that the expected big strides just aren't going to happen.
2. Las Vegas Raiders and Gardner Minshew
Age: 29 when 2025 season begins
Health: Moderate to declining
Performance: Below average
Contract: One year left with a $10.8 million dead cap charge if cut this offseason, versus a $12.5 million in base salary and bonuses in 2025.
Position depth: Second year developmental backup Aidan O'Connell is signed through 2026
Bottom line: From a cap perspective combined with the ability to part ways with Minshew fairly cheaply, this is a clean slate quarterback position. There is no massive contract weighing down future years. No high-level veteran with high-level health issues. No highly paid mid-20s starter who just can't seem to hold a higher gear consistently. Plus, the Raiders are currently holding the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft and may very well ascend to No. 1 overall by the end of the season. Which means if there's any high-level rookie quarterback to be had in this draft (and some will argue there isn't), the Raiders have the positioning to draft that player without necessarily paying extra draft capital to get there. If we're just looking at the QB spot and comparing the talent and financial freedoms of having an ability to maneuver in any direction, this is an enticing spot.
1. Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams
Age: 23
Health: Maintaining with young age
Performance: Inconsistent
Contract: Three years left on rookie pay scale, plus a fifth year option.
Position depth: Capable backup in Tyson Bagent
Bottom line: The talent level and ceiling is high-end. The contract is advantageous and Williams has stayed healthy thus far. Plus he has a young backup who is capable of coming in and winning games in spot situations. The only problem here is coaching and development. And if you believe you're the right guy for that job, then Williams is a no-brainer choice as the best combination of age, cost and potential to improve. No reason go overly deep here. It's clear this is the best intersection of talent versus cost.
Not everyone is going to agree with these rankings, so have at it. Now, on to the rest of the QB Room …
○ An interesting side note on the Bears and the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus following his Thanksgiving Day disaster against the Detroit Lions: There are some people in the organization who believe his lack of immediately owning full responsibility for the decisions at the end of that loss expedited his firing. While Eberflus was likely going to get fired without a miracle run in Chicago's remaining schedule, two team sources said the front office and elements of ownership felt the coach came up extremely short when he twice had an opportunity to definitively steer the late-game time management conversation away from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. In each of those opportunities speaking to the media — immediately after the loss and then the next day on a zoom call — there was a feeling that Eberflus tried to defend the failure to use Chicago's final timeout at the end of the game rather than simply admitting the error and putting it on himself.
That clearly irked some in the organization who felt Williams was taking some unfair criticism for the last seconds of the game that were more an issue of Eberflus failing to step in and manage a moment that clearly called for it. Don’t be surprised if this is the kind of thing that weighs heavily in the Bears’ search for their next head coach. While there is a presumption in some corners that Chicago will put a premium on searching for an offensive tactician to make the most of Williams’ considerable ceiling, I wouldn’t be surprised if the first bullet point on the checklist of the front office and ownership will be finding the strongest possible leader and culture creator available. If that’s the case, it will be fascinating to see if candidates like Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll come into focus despite their age, alongside younger options like Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and former Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel. I’ll be curious to see how that contrasts against Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who left behind a bit of a culture flop with the Arizona Cardinals when he was fired.
○ One of the data points that should get a lot of attention this offseason in terms of Deshaun Watson's future with the Cleveland Browns is how Jameis Winston continues to draw out the best versions of the skill position players around him. While Winston has been a roller coaster of success and failure in games, there's no denying that he's unlocked new levels of productivity with wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore, while also showcasing strong connections with tight end David Njoku and receiver Cedric Tillman. Since Watson was lost for the season on Oct. 20, Jeudy and Tillman have each put up the best receiving yardage games of their careers, with Moore also posting the second-best. Meanwhile, Njoku has had two games in his career where he caught a career-high two touchdowns in a single game … and neither of those games came with Watson as the starting quarterback. Instead, it was Joe Flacco last year and Winston this year at the helm.
While “career best” yardage and touchdown games is a bit of a dumb stat that can be dependent on the circumstances of individual games, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to watch tape of the Browns and see what happens when Watson is removed from the equation. The offense was more prolific under Flacco in 2023 and now it’s more prolific under Winston in 2024. That looks like a trend now — not an anomaly. And you can bet the opportunity cost of starting Watson again in 2025 will be weighed heavily this offseason. Flacco and Winston showcased a propensity to make bad mistakes at critical times. But so has Watson. The difference is that Flacco and Winston at least gave other Browns players a chance to be consistently functional and productive.
○ On Tuesday, the world was treated to the first trailer of Aaron Rodgers' forthcoming docutainment series with Netflix, clearly focusing in on the perceived (and sometimes very real) drama that has seemed to follow the quarterback for years. I'm not going to get knee deep into it just yet, but it is extremely interesting to see this dropped in the middle of December in what could have been a critical time for the Jets if the season hadn't gone off the rails. It would be wild if this was always the planned rollout for the series, right on top of the home stretch of the schedule. If so, that would have potentially been pretty distracting. I'm also curious where and when this all came together in terms of the individuals following Rodgers around and chronicling the series. I'll just leave that thought with one of Rodgers' most prominent comments on distractions that occur inside the football season and inside the Jets' building.
"Anything that doesn't have anything to do with winning needs to be assessed," Rodgers said during his final press conference of the 2023 season. "So anything in this building that we're doing individually or collectively that has nothing to do with real winning needs to be assessed. … It's not a half the time thing, it's not a sometimes thing, it's not a most of the time thing — it's an every time thing. If you want to be a winning organization and to put yourself in position to win championships and be competitive, everything that you do matters, and the bulls*** that has nothing to do with winning needs to get out of the building. So, that'll be the focus moving forward."
○ I’ve touched on this before, but I want to reiterate it once more: If the 49ers season tanks to the point of San Francisco being a double-digit loss team and quarterback Brock Purdy is average down the stretch, things are going to get very interesting. Especially if Sam Darnold — who is very much liked in the 49ers building — hits free agency on a high note while running a version of the Shanahan offense with the Minnesota Vikings.
I'd also keep a close eye on what happens with the Atlanta Falcons and Kirk Cousins. If the Falcons fall out of the playoff picture and decide to give rookie Michael Penix some starts to aid his development, I think there's a chance Cousins could have the motivation to go elsewhere. Especially if the 49ers are suddenly thinking twice about their quarterback situation. I'm still hearing that the top priority in the organization is to get a Purdy extension done. But I also still believe the rest of this season could create some waves. Particularly if other options are on the table and early contract negotiations with Purdy's camp aren't fruitful.
○ Earlier this week, I wrote about this year’s MVP race and how it could get interesting down the stretch. You can add offensive rookie of the year to that intrigue, too. I’ve yet to make any meaningful calls on the postseason awards, but just from some loose conversations about players, Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has definitely impressed some of the executives whose teams have faced Denver this season. At midseason, it felt like Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was running away with offensive rookie of the year. That may have changed a bit when he hurt his ribs. I still think he’s the frontrunner, but Nix has a chance to make his case in a pair of key games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs.