Roki Sasaki is headed to MLB, and there will be no shortage of speculation he has eyes for only the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The circumstantial evidence supports, but by no means proves such a conclusion. The Dodgers appear to be a fit for Sasaki for multiple reasons, from their track record of developing pitchers to their employment of two other past Japanese phenoms in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
If Sasaki wants to come to MLB and immediately compete for a World Series title while maintaining a connection to Japan and developing for a lucrative free agency six years down the line, the Dodgers are probably the best bet. That doesn't mean you should assume it's a done deal, though, and there is one decision left that figures to be a significant tell for Sasaki's intentions.
And it all comes down to the date of Dec. 1.
Roki Sasaki's MLB posting process, explained
When the Chiba Lotte Marines announced they were posting Sasaki, they left out one important detail: when they would be officially posting him. Instead, via Google Translate, they only said they "have decided to begin the process."
That is significant because of how the posting system works for players in Sasaki's position. The basics work out to a 45-day period in which players can negotiate with every MLB team. If they don't reach an agreement in that window, they go back to their NPB team and can be posted again next offseason.
As you might have heard, Sasaki coming to MLB now instead of two years from now means he is forgoing the kind of nine-figures deal Yamamoto got last season. Instead, he is basically an international free agent in the eyes of MLB, just like a teenager from the Dominican Republic. That means Sasaki will be bound by MLB teams' relatively tiny international bonus pools, which topped out at a little above $7 million this season. It also means Sasaki will be subject to the international free agency calendar.
International bonus pools are refreshed year-by-year, with a dead period between Dec. 15 and Jan. 15. A team can use its pool to sign whatever player it can, but leftover money goes away on Dec. 15, with every team's pool replenished a month later.
We should now mention that the Dodgers are the MLB team with the most remaining international bonus money, at a little above $2.5 million. By comparison, the San Diego Padres, another team expected to be very interested in Sasaki, have $2,200 remaining.
So if they want to pursue Sasaki, every non-Dodgers MLB team is going to want him to be available after Jan. 15, when the pools reset and the Dodgers' financial advantage disappears. And that means Sasaki would have to be posted after Dec. 1, because then his posting window would reach into the period where he can sign in 2025.
Scenario A: Roki Sasaki is posted before Dec. 1
There is little practical reason for Sasaki to do this, which is why this could be seen as a show of intention by the flamethrower.
If Sasaki does this, it means he is fine with only a scant few teams being able to offer him a seven-figure bonus, despite each of those teams being able to offer him more money in 2025. And it would mean the Dodgers having the most money available, which is usually true but really wasn't supposed to be true in this situation.
That outcome would support the conclusion that Sasaki pushed to be posted to MLB with the Dodgers in mind as a destination. It would also support the idea that the Dodgers, a very smart team that takes advantage of every opportunity to leverage their wealth, reserved that money in its bonus pool specifically for Sasaki, whether or not they've been back-channeling with him.
Scenario B: Roki Sasaki is posted after Dec. 1
This is the world where every other MLB team would have a better chance, but the Dodgers would probably still be the favorite. They might not be able to offer as much money now, but they can promise Sasaki more money will arrive in a month and a half.
This would also be what the Marines want to do as they get a portion of Sasaki's money.
Make no mistake, there are likely MLB teams who would be willing to commit their entire international bonus pools to Sasaki, which means he could go from a $2.5 million bonus to a $7 million bonus by waiting until after Dec. 1. However, we're also talking about a player who just cost himself a nine-figure payday by being posted this offseason in the first place.
It seems clear Sasaki is not financially motivated, or at least doesn't need MLB money ASAP to be very rich. He is already a star in his own country, with all of the endorsement deals that come with it. That income figures to increase if Sasaki becomes another NPB-to-MLB star, whichever team he plays for.
So that's why the bonus money question is significant, but it's also a bit silly to treat this level of money as a deciding factor. We're trying to follow the actions of a person who is acting irrationally from a money standpoint.
Sasaki's choice should instead come down to what MLB team can sell him on how much the club can help him over the next six years. That could mean the Dodgers. It could also mean any number of teams.
But if it's the Dodgers...
This could be what pushes 29 MLB teams and every NPB team into changing the posting system
We can plainly say it. An NPB superstar pushing his team into posting him so he can join the mega-rich, defending World Series champion to contend alongside two other Japanese superstars, at the cost of his own and his team's financial wellbeing, would be bad for both NPB and MLB.
This posting system was specifically set up to give Japanese players an incentive to stay in Japan for some of their primes before looking for their MLB riches. It worked with Yamamoto, who won three straight pitching triple crowns and MVPs for the Orix Buffaloes before landing a $325 million contract for the Dodgers.
This is vitally important for NPB teams, both from the standpoint of keeping big-name players as long as they can to maintain fan interest and because posting fees are a major financial boon for teams. The Buffaloes, who had a payroll in the $20 million range in 2023, received more than $50 million by posting Yamamoto, The Marines now stand to receive only 20% of Sasaki's contract money. That would mean $500,000 if Sasaki gets that $2.5 million.
On the MLB side, teams would only be upset because they didn't at least get a chance to financially entice Sasaki.
It's a situation not dissimilar to Nick Saban recruiting for Alabama in the pre-NIL days. Because college football teams couldn't offer five-star recruits what they would get in a free market, those players often sought out the programs that could give the best shot at competing for a championship and NFL riches, which often meant Alabama.
It's hard to say how the system, which is jointly agreed upon by MLB and NPB, would change, but multiple teams being frustrated with the Dodgers and Sasaki could be quite a motivator.
